by Joshua Soll

What would the demand for sharks look like if we continued using them for vaccines?

Using previously prepared squalene quantities in adjuvants, we can estimate the number of sharks required to fulfill the demands of a COVID-19 vaccine based on human population sizes. These estimates may only come to fruition if a shark squalene-based adjuvant is produced. It is estimated that 2.7-3 million sharks are killed each year for their squalene alone. This annual number could increase significantly with the use of shark squalene in COVID-19 vaccines.

Approximately 3,000 sharks are required to produce 1 ton of squalene. The estimated quantity of sharks needed to fulfill the demands of different populations for a vaccine (assuming only 2 doses is needed per person) are: 

Some previous studies have provided exact quantities of squalene in adjuvants used in their vaccines, such as 9.75 mg/dose for MF59 and 10.68 mg/dose for AS03 (Frey et al. 2014; Jackson et al. 2015).  

If each dose of MF59 contains 9.75 mg squalene: 

If each dose of AS03 contains 10.68 mg squalene: 

It is likely that more than one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine will be needed per person, or that a COVID-19 vaccine would need to be given seasonally, similar to flu vaccines. If shark squalene continues to be used, this could mean significant losses for shark populations, much more than what is shown in the charts above.

Where did these values come from? 

Based on quantities of squalene in MF59 and AS03 that have been previously developed in research, calculations have been made to determine the mass of squalene in one dose of the adjuvant/vaccine, and in global terms, how many sharks would need to be killed to fulfill the demands of COVID-19 vaccines to treat entire populations. While it is not likely that every individual person within a population will be given a COVID-19 vaccine, known population sizes can still be used to estimate the number of sharks needed to manufacture a vaccine.  

*Please refer to our Science and Research page for all research backing these claims.